Industry analysts estimate that India’s telecom sector will invest around Rs 3 trillion in capital expenditure over the next three to five years as operators shift focus from coverage expansion to network densification, fibre deployment, and artificial intelligence (AI)-led optimisation. This indicates a transition from the sector’s peak capex phase in fiscal year 2024 (FY24), when operators rolled out 5G services nationwide, reaching 90 per cent population coverage.
One analyst noted that the new investment cycle will prioritise tower densification through the addition of more cell sites, along with fibre deployment to connect mobile towers and homes, an area where fibre penetration is still below 40 per cent.
Similarly, the National Broadband Mission (NBM), launched in 2019, missed its target of fiberising 70 per cent of telecom towers by FY25, compared to roughly one-third coverage at the time of launch.
While Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel have already front-loaded much of their capex and established consistent procurement cycles, operators such as Vodafone Idea Limited and Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited continue to face financial pressure.
Further, another analyst highlighted that sustainable scaling will require stronger cash-flow visibility, a more diversified vendor ecosystem, and improved project governance. However, infrastructure companies remain optimistic about their ability to scale, citing government support and disciplined operations.