At a recent industry event, Pankaj Agarwal, Secretary, Ministry of Power (MoP), highlighted the progress in the power sector, and the resilience of its transmission and generation systems. He also discussed the need to address the financial health of discoms, improve renewable energy forecasting and accelerate smart meter adoption, all of which are crucial for achieving future energy goals and the vision of a “Viksit Bharat”. Edited excerpts…
India’s power sector has experienced significant growth over the past decade, driven by government policies, state initiatives and industry efforts. However, to achieve the vision of a Viksit Bharat, much more remains to be done.
This year, the country reached a peak demand of 250 GW during the day and 235 GW in the evening, underscoring the strength of its transmission, distribution and generation systems. Yet, challenges lie ahead. Demand has surged by 11 per cent compared to the past year and is expected to reach 384 GW by 2032. To meet this demand, India will need an installed capacity of around 900 GW by 2031-32.
The financial health of discoms is critical, as the sector’s revenue flows primarily through them. However, discoms are grappling with significant financial difficulties, with accumulated losses exceeding Rs 6.5 trillion as of March 2023 and annual losses of Rs 670 billion.
Another critical challenge is the integration of renewable energy. While the power sector has gained flexibility through conventional capacity, significant challenges remain in forecasting and predictive accuracy. Current forecasting for renewable energy sources such as solar and wind involves high margins of error — up to 31 per cent in some cases. Solar forecasting can deviate by up to 15 per cent on a day-ahead basis and by 11 per cent on an intra-day basis, while wind energy can vary by 13 per cent intra-day.
Energy storage, whether through pumped storage or battery systems, has become crucial. High-quality forecasting tools, powered by artificial intelligence models trained on real data, are essential to improve accuracy. Demand-side management is equally important. Therefore, discoms must step up their demand forecasting efforts to minimise deviations and better manage supply, especially as the government pushes forward with ambitious programmes like the 30 GW PM Surya Ghar and the 30 GW PM KUSUM, both targeted for implementation within the next four years.
Smart meters also play a pivotal role in demand-side management and improving the financial viability of discoms. Currently, 12.5 million smart meters have been installed across India, with states like Assam, Bihar and Haryana emerging as success stories. In Haryana, losses have further dropped to single digits, and for some consumers, losses have been halved following the installation of smart meters. Over the past year alone, 7.2 million meters have been installed.
Smart meters should be treated as standard practice, central to the sector’s strategy. A key reason for the slow uptake is the lack of a clear implementation strategy. This has led to resistance against smart meters, with consumers facing issues that seem minor but are significant at an individual level. Another major issue is the lack of interoperability — different types of meters require different mechanisms, and insufficient coordination between departments makes it difficult for systems to communicate with each other.
While smart meters serve as a starting point, the data they collect will be vital for future operations and could also be leveraged by industries to develop value-added services for the utility sector. Start-ups, industries and advanced metering infrastructure service providers must create these services to unlock the full potential of smart meters for utilities.
To ensure accurate monitoring, technical personnel need strong soft skills to effectively communicate with consumers and convince them to adopt smart meters. In addition, geographical monopolies should be avoided, where only certain brands are used in specific areas.
Overall, to meet India’s growing power demand and 2032 targets, addressing the financial health of discoms, improving renewable energy integration and enhancing forecasting accuracy are essential. Strengthening demand-side management and energy storage solutions will be key to ensuring grid stability. Strategic advancements in these areas will drive growth, sustainability and resilience in India’s power sector.
