India’s myriad climate change mitigation initiatives are aimed at achieving the goal of net-zero emissions by 2070. A report titled, “Synchronising energy transitions toward possible Net Zero for India: Affordable and clean energy for all”, prepared by the Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad and funded jointly by the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser to the Government of India and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited, has been released recently. The study indicates that India will require not only diverse technological interventions but also an average investment of $40 billion-$50 billion annually over the next five decades. It also highlights that there is no one solution for India’s net-zero energy transition, but rather, a number of technologies must co-exist.
Indian Infrastructure presents the key takeaways from the report….
Energy requirements
As per the Human Development Report 2021-22, India’s current human development index (HDI) is 0.633, placing it in the medium-HDI group. A high HDI ranges from 0.70 to 0.799, and a very high HDI is above 0.8 (with a maximum possible value of 1.000). India aspires to become a developed country by 2047 and in line with this, its HDI must become comparable with that of the world’s advanced countries by 2047. The study notes that a very high HDI of 0.800 could be achieved at a minimum per capita energy consumption of 37 gigajoules (GJ) per year. Meanwhile, achieving an HDI of 0.9 and above would require an estimated 56 GJ per year. Assuming a future population of 1.5 billion, India’s total energy consumption could range from 14,000 TWh to 18,000 TWh for an HDI of 0.8 and at least 20,000 TWh for an HDI of 0.9 in terms of energy requirements nationwide.
Among states and union territories (UTs), Bihar, Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Mizoram and Odisha have per capita energy consumption in the bottom one-third. Among states, the average per capita electricity consumption ranges from the lowest of 167 kWh per capita per year for Bihar and the highest of 2,387 kWh per capita per year for Goa. Among UTs, the range is from 1,877 kWh to 13,800 kWh per capita per year. Therefore, providing more energy and electricity per capita would enhance the national HDI. As electrification increases (especially in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Assam—states with a high population and low energy access), there is an opportunity to improve the national HDI to 0.7 by 2025, 0.8 by 2035-40 and 0.9 by 2045-50. The dependence of the Indian economy on coal means that energy demand and energy sector emissions will continue to grow. However, in net-zero scenarios where more nuclear power is deployed (up to 331 GW against the current 7.48 GW), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kWh could reduce to 2 g per kWh in 2070 from the current 765 g per kWh. Under a net-zero scenario with a higher renewable energy share (281 GW solar and 150 GW wind), GHG emissions per kWh could reduce to 5 g per kWh in 2070.
Short-term implications (up to 2030)
The study notes that the current net load curve assumes a characteristic “duck” shape, with a decrease in the demand profile during the day, especially when solar generation begins, and an increase in the evening. The global push toward decarbonisation has put pressure on fossil fuel-based electricity generation capacities. Moreover, coal-based power plants demonstrate inflexibilities associated with quick ramping and minimum load operations. Recent notifications from the government have further decreased the acceptable levels of minimum load operation of coal-based plants to accommodate renewable integration. Deployable storage technologies typically have shorter durations, around four hours per day, which helps in balancing shorter-duration demand through intraday energy arbitrage. Hydropower, with its quick ramping capabilities, is more amenable to peak load balancing during variable renewable energy integration. The study indicates that in the projected base case for 2030, up to 50 GW of renewable energy curtailments/storage may be required. Alternatively, the renewable energy could be used for hydrogen generation. Direct splitting of water to generate hydrogen could become a potentially more attractive route soon.
Research indicates that India may witness steady growth in the share of electricity in energy demand owing to the uptake of electric vehicles, with the share expected to reach 25 per cent by 2047. The share of electricity in energy demand is estimated to reach 20.6 per cent in 2030, compared to 18.3 per cent in 2021. With further demand-side management, it may be possible to shift 50 GW of load to solar hours, thereby avoiding renewable energy curtailment. Time-of-day tariffs may also help flatten the load curve further, as seen in some high-HDI countries. All the scenarios considered demonstrate full absorption of projected nuclear power capacities by 2030 in the short term.
Long-term implications (up to 2070 NZ India)
The study notes that if India plans to phase down coal in the next three decades, it will need to build adequate infrastructure for alternative sources such as nuclear power, in addition to flexible grid infrastructure and storage to support the integration of renewable energy. Furthermore, the coal phase-down will require significant imports of critical minerals to fulfil the needs of the renewable energy and battery storage sectors. Aluminium, chromium, cobalt, copper, graphite, iron, lead, lithium, manganese, nickel, vanadium and zinc are among the most commonly used minerals across battery technologies. Compared to the supply chain for fossil fuels, especially oil and natural gas, the supply chain for these raw materials is more geographically concentrated.
The report also notes that if India intends to follow coal-dependent pathways, it will need to explore carbon dioxide technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage as well as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), to fully understand their long-term potential. CCUS should be powered via renewable grids to ensure their compatibility with long-term net-zero targets. Challenges such as a mismatched operation scale may require clustering emitters near a suitable use or storage site to ensure cost-efficient capture and transport. Moreover, risks such as leakage, the need for monitoring and maintaining storage sites, and associated liabilities could potentially hinder the deployment of CCUS.
Under all the net-zero scenarios, nuclear power generation will constitute a substantial share in 2070 – 331 GW under the first net-zero target scenario (NZ1) (with a thrust on nuclear energy), 78 GW under NZ2 (fossil fuel with CCUS), 207 GW under NZ3 (renewable) and 178 GW under NZ4. Due to trade bans and the lack of indigenous uranium, energy production from nuclear energy did not gain momentum in the past, but the import of uranium has been possible through the opening of international civil nuclear trade.
Recommendations
Coal is projected to continue for the next two decades as the backbone of the Indian energy system. However, gradually, non-fossil energy (renewable and nuclear) needs to replace the share of fossil fuel.
For the country to achieve net-zero emissions, multiple transitions must occur simultaneously across energy supply and end-use sectors. Overall, all low-carbon technologies should be provided a level playing field, and preferential treatment for select technologies should be avoided. This can be achieved through new, innovative finance and/or transition finance mechanisms. Here, all forms of low-carbon hydrogen below a certain GHG intensity could be incentivised, instead of just green hydrogen.
Scaling up hydrogen technologies will require several policy and technological interventions. The report recommends that it is essential to support the production of hydrogen from various sources, including renewable energy, fossil fuels with CCUS technologies and nuclear energy, under the umbrella of clean hydrogen to speed up the availability of hydrogen in the market. Regulatory changes also need to reflect hydrogen blending limits into natural gas networks. An analysis of the emissions from hydrogen transmission and distribution networks is also imperative because hydrogen could be more susceptible to leakage.
Uranium storage facilities are commissioned to ensure resilience against disruption in nuclear power. Institutional arrangements should be scaled up to facilitate easier and earlier commissioning of more nuclear power plants. This may include public-private partnerships. Special economic zones could be set up in areas where nuclear power/hydrogen cogeneration can take place alongside industrial operators with a large demand for these commodities.
Conclusion
For India to achieve the net-zero emissions target, it is imperative to decarbonise the electricity sector. To this end, all possible options must be tapped into to facilitate the energy transition. Flexible operation of coal-based power plants is essential to support the grid, along with the deployment of energy storage technologies to balance the integration of variable renewable energy sources. Further, increased uptake of green hydrogen and nuclear power would contribute to grid stability.
